World Cup 2026: Winners predicted as holders Argentina defend title in USA, Canada, Mexico tournament Football News

It was Spain’s victory over England in the Euro 2024 final that heralded the end of Gareth Southgate’s time leading the Three Lions, ushering in Thomas Tuchel’s reign. Germany are given a 54.7 percent chance of winning inside 90 minutes, while Paraguay’s chances stand at 23.1 percent. The remaining 22.3 percent of simulations ended level after normal time, sending the tie to extra time and possibly penalties. Scorer Market – Lautaro Martinez to Score AnytimeLautaro Martinez has scored once in the tournament and registered five goals across Argentina’s last five matches in all competitions. With Messi drawing defensive attention and Julian Alvarez providing the running, Martinez is regularly afforded space inside the area and is one of the most reliable penalty-box finishers in this Argentina squad. He is worth including in any anytime scorer selections at the best available price.

Mauricio Pochettino’s USMNT is also given great odds of making it through to the next round, sitting at 78.46%. Canada and Mexico, the other two co-hosts, are both expected to advance comfortably as well. As the round of 32 prepares to get underway on Sunday, the cogs of the Opta supercomputer have been whirring to rate every team’s chances of glory.

As USA have been producing excellent performances in front of home fans, our prediction points toward a 2-1 home win. The disappointing campaign prompted President Lee to order a full review of the national team programme, describing the result as “deeply bewildering” and questioning both the team’s structure and Hong’s appointment. Morocco, meanwhile, arrive in a confident mood after beating Scotland and are aiming for back-to-back World Cup wins over European opponents for the first time. The Opta supercomputer makes Brazil the favourites to reach the next round. Ivory Coast narrowly missed out on topping Group E after surrendering a lead against Germany, but their overall performances have underlined why they are being tipped as one of the tournament’s surprise packages.

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• It is 24 years since Brazil last prevailed and only once before have they endured a drought of that length since first winning in 1958, which was between 1970 and 1994.
• With so much on the line in each and every game with players playing for pride and their nation, it means there are various different betting angles to target.
• From the opening match at Estadio Azteca in Mexico City on 11 June 2026 to the Final at MetLife Stadium, New Jersey on 19 July 2026, this page is your complete prediction hub.
• He will hope to go out with a bang and cement his legacy as France’s greatest boss.
• All three teams have a chance greater than 5% of winning the tournament, and of at least 10% to reach the final.
• But by the time next year’s tournament rolls around, it will have been 12 years since Germany played a knockout game at a World Cup.
• Portugal will likely have one last dance with a slightly older Cristiano Ronaldo.
• Free bets are valid 30 days, only deposits with cards, ApplePay, & Pay by Bank are eligible.
• The World Cup kicks off on June 11 – but who will lift the trophy after the final on July 19?
• Gabriel Avalos has only scored twice in 25 appearances for his country, but there is again set to be a spot in the final third of the field for the 34-year-old.

Deschamps’ reign has comprised 175 games, so if they reach the first knockout round, he will have overseen 100 games more than France’s next-longest serving boss (Raymond Domenech, 79). Yamal created the most chances at the tournament, with 19, while only teammate Nico Williams (2.1) had more expected assists (xA) than his 2.0. Six of the teams appearing at the tournament are still to be decided, with four qualifying via the UEFA play-offs and another two via the inter-confederation playoffs. On 5 December, allowing fans of all nations to start plotting their routes to a possible coronation at New Jersey’s MetLife Stadium.

Spain vs. Austria

Messi also led all players in Qatar for shots (32), chances created from open play (17) and fouls won (22), becoming the second player to top all three metrics at a single World Cup. Maradona in 1986 (30 shots, 19 open-play chances created, 53 fouls won). Southgate’s England teams were also solid at the back but rarely free-flowing.

Despite beating Argentina in the 2022 group stage, Saudi Arabia may once again fall short of a top-two finish, which looks reserved for Uruguay. Even if Lamine Yamal fails to recover for the early stages of the competition, this should be plain sailing for Spain, as they hope to build upon their 2024 UEFA European Championship triumph. A battle for second place ought to be far more exciting, with Iran likely to put Egypt’s credentials to the test after a decent group-stage campaign in Qatar. Cape Verde (0.1%) have qualified and are the second-smallest nation by population (after Iceland in 2018) to achieve the feat. They fared slightly better with our model than the other first-timers Curaçao and Jordan (both 0.04%).

La Albiceleste arrive in perfect form with a 100% group-stage record, winning all their group matches and conceding just 0.20 goa… Argentina are expected to win this World Cup 2026 Round of 32 tie comfortably, with Messi in prolific form having scored six goals in the group stage and Lautaro Martinez adding further firepower. At 1/6, there is no value in the match result outright, but Argentina to win and over 2.5 goals at the best available price represents the most sensible angle in a game that has all the hallmarks of a heavy home-side victory. Mexico are seeded comfortably and will play key matches at altitude in Mexico City, a significant advantage.

With that in mind, there are not many outcomes which can be completely dismissed. But there is one scenario our supercomputer is willing to rule out, as the only team who never won the tournament in any of our 25,000 simulations was Curaçao. So, yes, Haiti unbelievably won the 2026 World Cup once in our 25,000 simulations. They are more likely than not (52.0%) to get as far as the last 16 and have a healthy 24.2% chance of making the last eight. Morocco, meanwhile, are the highest-rated African team after they were superbly shock semi-finalists in Qatar. Colombia were not even at the last World Cup but are a team to watch out for this time.

All 12 groups, outright winner analysis, Golden Boot picks, dark horse teams, and daily tips throughout the 38-day tournament from 11 June to 19 July 2026. All eyes will be on Estadio BBVA when the Netherlands and Morocco face each other in a highly-anticipated World Cup showdown. As the two teams seem to be evenly matched ahead of this round 32 clash, our prediction leans toward a 1-1 draw. The Netherlands produced a series of convincing displays in Group F, defeating both Sweden and Tunisia while sharing the spoils with Japan… MetLife Stadium will be the centre of attention when France and Sweden lock horns in an exciting last-32 encounter. As Les Bleus have looked like one of the strongest teams in the tournament so far, our prediction leans toward a 4-2 home win.

FIFA World Cup 2026, Round Of 32: Ivory Coast vs Norway Predicted Lineups, Team News, Prediction And More

The Opta supercomputer gives DR Congo the edge, with the Leopards winning 48.9 percent of its 25,000 pre-match simulations. Across 25,000 pre-match simulations, Croatia won 56.3 percent of the time. Ghana were victorious in 17.6 percent of simulations, while the draw was rated at 26.2 percent.

• There are eight LaLiga winners from Barcelona – but, tellingly, none from Real Madrid.
• La Roja cruised through the group stage without conceding a single goal, underlining their status as genuine title contenders.
• Both sides arrived at this summer’s tournament expecting to reach the later stages and the supercomputer does not predict any early obstacles.
• Create a free account only when you want to save your bracket or join the prediction league.
• Neymar is no longer the first name on the team sheet but whatever squad the now 34-year-old is part of will still be lifted by his presence.
• Brazil and France sit at the top of most prediction models, and for good reason.
• Either would surprise nobody by lifting the trophy in New Jersey.
• Anyway, the evidence thus far is that Mbappe scores goals in World Cups.
• But a rampant 5-0 victory in Serbia in September showcased the Three Lions’ potential, and the emergence of Elliot Anderson seems to have finally ended their search for a central midfield partner for Declan Rice.
• Australia progressed from the group stage thanks to a disciplined 0-0 draw with Paraguay, where they limited their opponents to just 0.30 expected goals against (xGA).

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The top spot could come down to goal difference, with both teams likely taking advantage of Cape Verde. Saudi Arabia remain the wildcard, but I’m sticking with the two heavyweights to advance. The 2026 FIFA World Cup introduces the most dramatic format change in tournament history, expanding to 48 teams and creating a brand-new bracket structure that reshapes how every round unfolds. With more nations, an added knockout round, and third-place teams advancing, predicting the full tournament path is more complex, and more intriguing, than ever. Our free AI tip for Belgium vs Senegal — home team wins or draw, with 89% confidence.

However, we predict a 3-0 away win as les Tricolores look unstoppable at the moment. Paraguay produced a disciplined display to eliminate Germany after a dramatic penalty shootout, proving once again how difficult they are to break down in knockout football. England and DR Congo will be vying for a spot in the World Cup last 16 when they lock horns at Mercedes-Benz Stadium on Wednesday.

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With William Pacho and Moises Caicedo forming the spine of the team, they have the foundations required to frustrate even the elite nations. They conceded just eight goals across their last 16 World Cup qualifying matches, shutting out both Brazil and Argentina along the way. Pink boots have also become one of the biggest trends at the tournament. There are quite often, and unfortunately, major injuries that rule out certain players from the World Cup Finals, much to the devastation of the players themselves and their nations. This can impact a team’s chances heavily, especially if it is a top goalscorer or stalwart defender that is essential to the way the nation plays.

They won’t have the same surprise factor this time around but still made it to what proved to be a chaotic AFCON final this year and started the month of June sitting a lofty eighth in the FIFA world rankings. Netherlands, Norway, Belgium, Colombia and Morocco should all realistically target a long run and are dark horses to go the distance. It is 24 years since Brazil last prevailed and only once before have they endured a drought of that length since first winning in 1958, which was between 1970 and 1994.

All eyes, though, will be on teenage sensation Lamine Yamal, who joins Ronaldo and Messi as one of the most searched players in the world. Just 18 years old, he is tipped to be the young player of the tournament and already has the ability to spearhead his team to World Cup glory. Austria are narrowly favoured to win, with a 31.2 percent chance of taking all three points, while Algeria are rated at 26.7 percent.

France vs Morocco – Another semi-final appearance is likely to elude Morocco, with Les Bleus expected to prevail on sheer firepower. Netherlands vs Morocco – Even though the odds may be stacked against them, Morocco’s knack for upsetting elite opposition could produce the first major shock of the tournament. Tunisia’s unenviable record of failing to advance from the group stage in each of their six previous World Cup campaigns suggests they could struggle to keep pace with the rest of the pack.

• Argentina vs United States – The US crashed out at this juncture in the last tournament staged on their soil, and history looks set to repeat itself against the reigning champions.
• Belgium and Senegal square off in the World Cup last 32 in what promises to be an entertaining battle between two in-form sides.
• So, yes, Haiti unbelievably won the 2026 World Cup once in our 25,000 simulations.
• Then, in Germany, Ronaldo broke down in tears after seeing a penalty saved in Portugal’s last-16 tie against Slovenia, which they eventually won on spot-kicks.
• France can power clear as Argentina’s exertions against Portugal and Brazil catch up with them, and Messi runs out of fairy-tales.
• While they showed promise at UEFA EURO 2024, France enter with superior depth and balance.
• The Round of 32 at the 2026 World Cup is upon us, and there are some brilliant games coming up in the first knockout round at the tournament.
• Lewandowski scored his tally in 10 games, two more than Haaland.
• A place in the World Cup last 16 will be at stake when Switzerland and Algeria meet in what promises to be a tightly contested knockout clash.
• France are the big favourites to win the World Cup ahead of Argentina, with Spain and England the only others given a greater than 10% chance at current odds.
• Place a max £1 bet on “Over 0.5 Goals” in the Over/Under Goals market in England vs DR Congo World Cup match on Wednesday, 1st July.
• Then, in the United States, Atlanta, Boston, Dallas, Kansas City, Los Angeles, Miami, Houston, New York/New Jersey, Philadelphia, San Francisco and Seattle will be host cities.
• The Round of 32 is a brand-new knockout stage introduced for 2026.

Brazil has elite talent, though their depth remains a concern following long-term injuries to Estevao and Rodrygo months before the tournament starts. I’m giving Morocco the edge to win the group due to their cohesion and leadership from Achraf Hakimi, as well as difference‑makers like Ez Abde. Scotland could pose a threat with players like Scott McTominay and John McGinn, but they’re still at a disadvantage against better teams. They still should have enough to advance as one of the best third‑place teams ahead of Haiti.

Brazil vs. Mexico

Established in the UK — serving a global audience across Africa, Asia, and beyond. Simulate or predict every match of the 48-team tournament — group stage through the final. England will be looking to secure top spot in Group L when they take on already-eliminated Panama in their final group-stage match. As David faces Goliath at MetLife Stadium, we predict a routine 3-0 away win.

There are many teams who have a shot at winning the 2026 World Cup, with high expectations placed on nations like Argentina, France and Spain, who have all won recent World Cups or major tournaments in recent years. In our pick ‘em for the World Cup, users select who they think will win each of the 12 groups ahead of the tournament’s first game on Thursday. Then, after the group stage concludes and 32 of the tournament’s 48 teams move on to the knockout rounds, users can then pick the results of each of the 31 elimination games.

Mere weeks into Jesse Marsch’s reign, Canada reached the semi-finals on their Copa América debut, losing 2-0 to eventual winners Argentina. Only a penalty shootout denied them a bronze medal, as they lost to Marcelo Bielsa’s Uruguay in the third-place play-off. But by the time next year’s tournament rolls around, it will have been 12 years since Germany played a knockout game at a World Cup.

ELO Football Ratings (35% weight)

• This promises to be one of the most evenly matched ties of the Round of 32.
• Their identity has been built on structure and defensive organisation, with 1.1 goals…
• Netherlands vs Morocco – Even though the odds may be stacked against them, Morocco’s knack for upsetting elite opposition could produce the first major shock of the tournament.
• In the United States, all 104 matches are in English on Fox (70) and FS1 (34), and all are streamed on Fox One.
• The recent form and questions on formation under Mauricio Pochettino for the U.S. raises concern, while Turkiye’s balance and presence of Hakan Calhanoglu give them the slight edge to win the group.
• Forty-eight teams will battle it out for glory in North America, but who will win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
• Congo DR and Uzbekistan are unlikely to factor heavily, making this a high‑stakes, two‑team race.
• England’s game control and defense will be hard to beat, but scoring on bigger stages has always been iffy.
• Of course, they were famously crowned world champions in South Africa – but that 2010 success also represents the only time they have reached the semi-finals from their last 14 participations.
• Bafana Bafana booked their place in the last 32 thanks to a shock 1-0 victory over South Korea, showing great discipline and defensive organizatio…
• Their organised defensive shape has been the foundation throughout, keeping clean sheets against Spain and Saudi Arabia and conceding only twice across three games.
• Despite sitting a point behind Ghana in Group L, Croatia are clear favourites to claim victory, according to the Opta supercomputer.
• Jamiro Monteiro and Garry Rodrigues add craft in midfield, and manager Aguas is expected to name a similar side to the one that earned three draws through the group phase.

Both sides arrived at this summer’s tournament expecting to reach the later stages and the supercomputer does not predict any early obstacles. They also won last summer’s Nations League, getting the better of both Germany and Spain in the semi-finals and finals, with largely the same group of players. France will naturally sit near the top of most betting markets but they are easier to oppose than the odds suggest.

Here are Paul Carr’s power rankings of all 48 teams in the 2026 World Cup, separated into five distinct tiers. The 2026 World Cup is the first men’s World Cup in the United States since the 1994 tournament, and it’ll be unlike any World Cup ever played. We have mapped out the full World Cup picture, from the group-stage battles through to the knockout phase, outlining how the tournament could unfold from start to finish. As for Paraguay, Diego Gomez will miss the match through suspension, having picked up a second yellow card of the tournament against Australia last time out. The White and Reds picked up four points from their three Group D matches to finish third, only behind second-placed Australia on goal difference.

World Cup: To advance, the U.S. will have to end its five-year European curse

For full predictions on points, goals and assists, check out our 2026 World Cup Team Projections. Building a perfect bracket may be unrealistic, but identifying where chaos is most likely, and where elite teams will hold firm, is the key to getting ahead. Below, you’ll find a full round-by-round projection, blending safe picks with calculated risks to map out how the 2026 World Cup could unfold. England vs Portugal – Ronaldo may have to take comfort from beating his arch-nemesis in the quarter-finals.

Mexico vs. Ecuador: Mexico (tie no bet)

Many members of the Red Devils’ ‘Golden Generation’ remain in the fold, even if the years are starting to catch up with them. The resurgence of James Rodríguez made headlines at that competition, as he led the way for chances created (20) and assists (six) – that latter tally equalled the record for a single edition, alongside Brazil’s Alex in 2003. But it remains to be seen whether 40-year-old goalkeeper Guillermo Ochoa will earn a historic call-up. He is the third player – alongside Messi and Ronaldo – able to appear at an unprecedented sixth edition of the World Cup and was selected for the Gold Cup, so watch this space. That previous dry spell ended, of course, in the United States, and Brazil are assigned a 5.6% chance of another stateside triumph.

Teams are divided into 12 groups of 4, with the top 2 from each group advancing to a 32-team knockout bracket. Build your bracket, play the prediction league, and follow every match — all in one place. Teams with statistically underrated odds given their ELO momentum and recent tournament form.

Switzerland pipped Canada to win Group B. Colombia won Group K ahead of Portugal, the only group favorite not to finish top. Croatia recovered to take second in England’s group, pushing Ghana to a third-place spot. The top two in each advanced automatically, joined by the eight best third-placed teams. The group stage is finished and the Round of 32 began today with South Africa vs Canada in Los Angeles.

FIFA World Ranking (40% weight)

• The World Cup kicks off on June 11 – but who will lift the trophy after the final on July 19?
• Netherlands topped Group F with seven points to breeze into the round of 32, while Morocco finished second in Group C behind Brazil, also claiming seven points from three games.
• Gabriel Avalos has only scored twice in 25 appearances for his country, but there is again set to be a spot in the final third of the field for the 34-year-old.
• I’m taking a risk on Jordan to claim a knockout place and Algeria edging out Austria in an upset as one of the top third-place teams to advance to the Round of 32.
• Pochettino has had no choice but to experiment – in November, Giovani Reyna’s return to the squad saw him become the 51st player to start a game for the USMNT in 2025.
• Here’s how to watch all 104 World Cup matches for free, and here’s a channel guide for the group stage games.
• Emerse Faé’s side has impressed with its energy, athleticism and attacking balance, and now has the chance to script another memorable chapter.
• He will hope to go out with a bang and cement his legacy as France’s greatest boss.
• With so much on the line in each and every game with players playing for pride and their nation, it means there are various different betting angles to target.
• A battle for second place ought to be far more exciting, with Iran likely to put Egypt’s credentials to the test after a decent group-stage campaign in Qatar.
• But by the time next year’s tournament rolls around, it will have been 12 years since Germany played a knockout game at a World Cup.

His England reign took some time to get going, as England laboured past Albania (3-0), Latvia (2-0), Andorra (1-0 and 2-0) and were beaten 3-1 by Senegal in a June friendly. The 2026 World Cup will mark the end of an era in French football, with Didier Deschamps set to stand down from his role as Les Bleus’ head coach after 14 years at the helm. He will hope to go out with a bang and cement his legacy as France’s greatest boss. But most of the favourites are set, with Lionel Messi hoping to help Argentina become the first team since Brazil in 1962 to successfully defend their crown. This version of Morocco has the tools to be more proactive against France, but that can be a double-edged sword, facing Les Bleus’ phenomenal attack. A host nation with its collective tail up and bleary-eyed fans enduring a 1 a.m.

It is little surprise, then, that Spain are our predictive model’s early World Cup favourites, going all the way in 17.0% of tournament predictions. From the greatest individual rivalry of the 21st century to the greatest international soccer rivalry of all time. This will be tense, brutal and impossible to take your eyes off. Even if Brazil have improved as expected under Ancelotti, they are a rung below their great foes at present. Haaland’s father’s generation (Alfie actually didn’t play at the tournament in question) claimed a famous group-stage win over Brazil at France ’98.

Group G: Belgium Favored While Egypt and Salah Push for Knockout Spot

However, SportsLine soccer expert Matt Severance is looking for a little added security by playing Mexico (tie no bet) for a -215 payout. This involves two teams from CONCACAF and one team from the AFC, CAF, CONMEBOL and OFC. The two highest-ranked teams will go directly into the finals, and the four lowest-ranked nations will meet in bracket semi-finals, with the winners of the two bracket finals reaching the FIFA World Cup 26.

The group-stage achievements are genuine, but their attacking output of two goals in three competitive matches underlines the challenge ahead. Meanwhile, European soccer insider Martin Green has also revealed picks for Ivory Coast vs. Norway and Sweden vs. France. He’s backing Norway to win behind star striker Erling Haaland and also has France winning comfortably against a European rival. The over/under for total goals scored in France vs. Sweden is 3.5. Before locking in your 2026 World Cup picks and other World Cup bets on betting sites like FanDuel, be sure to check out top picks from the team of experts at SportsLine. During World Cup qualification, you may notice that certain teams have already qualified for the main tournament which may mean that they use some squad players or experiment with their lineup.

Debutants Cape Verde finished second in Group H ahead of two-time champions Uruguay, who were eliminated. South Africa and Egypt also reached the knockouts for the first time, while pre-tournament hopefuls Turkiye and Uruguay both went home early. 1960Tips.com has been the trusted destination for free football predictions, expert VIP picks, and sports betting analysis since 2017.

And of course, there are also six teams still to be decided in March’s play-offs. There is currently a combined 3.7% chance of any of those sides going all the way, with Italy surely the most likely candidates if they can end their World Cup exile. Croatia are another team whose best days may be behind them but can never be ruled out.

Switzerland vs. Colombia

However, it probably won’t be enough to prevent the Selecao from edging through to the next round. Mexico vs Best 3rd place Group C/E/F/H/I – Since suffering a quarter-final elimination on home soil in 1986, Mexico have reached the round of 16 in seven of their eight World Cup appearances. Ivory Coast vs Senegal – Senegal’s impressive results in recent tournaments point towards an emphatic victory in this all-African knockout tie.

What is the prediction for Germany vs Paraguay?

There are not expected to be any surprises in the Germany XI for this match, with Kai Havertz, Florian Wirtz and Jamal Musiala set to continue as the front three. Nathaniel Brown was not involved against Ecuador last time out due to a muscular problem, but the left-back is expected to be cleared to feature from the first whistle here. This is the sort of information to consider if you are thinking of betting on the World Cup, and we have included it in our World Cup betting guide. Paraguay are through as one of the best third-placed finishers at the competition, while Germany finished at the head of Group E to secure a spot in the round of 32. For example, by reproducing the kind of performance they showed in the opening half-hour against Brazil. In terms of pressing, I have the feeling the Atlas Lions can really trouble the Dutch.

Bosnia enter confidently after knocking out Italy and looks talented enough to win this group as long as Edin Dzeko can stay on the pitch at 40 years old. The Bosnian legend didn’t miss a minute in the playoffs against Wales and Italy despite injuring his shoulder. Switzerland’s experience and defensive structure should see them through comfortably, as well. Despite being co‑hosts, Canada remain difficult to trust due to inconsistency in group play, and a lack of high-end talent to get them past better teams. Even at home in the 2022 World Cup, Qatar still couldn’t get a point and they’ll likely struggle to do so again.

Spain and Brazil are the strongest challengers, though Spain would have to get past Argentina in the semifinals to reach the final on July 19. France are the form pick after winning Group I with three wins from three, beating Senegal, Iraq and Norway. Argentina are the closest challenger and sit on the opposite half of the bracket, setting up a possible repeat of the 2022 final. Canada finished second behind Switzerland and chase a first men’s World Cup knockout win against South Africa in the opening tie. Six host nations have won the World Cup, most recently France in 1998.

• As for Paraguay, Diego Gomez will miss the match through suspension, having picked up a second yellow card of the tournament against Australia last time out.
• Spain’s track record in major international competitions gives them the clear edge in this scenario.
• Five wins from five across all competitions, with ten goals scored and just one conceded in that run.
• A total of 18 spots are earnt for these three different qualification processes in Asia (AFC), Africa (CAF) and Oceania (OFC).
• The 2026 FIFA World Cup features 48 teams and they are split into 12 different groups, with winners, runners up, and even some third placed teams qualifying into the knockout rounds of the Finals.
• Cape Verde (0.1%) have qualified and are the second-smallest nation by population (after Iceland in 2018) to achieve the feat.
• The favoured teams, however, are France and Spain, with England deemed to have a strong chance as well.
• Mexico, who will play South Africa in the opening game at Estadio Azteca, also fare reasonably well in our sims.

With Alexis Mac Allister and Enzo Fernandez capable of picking passes from deep, the spaces behind Cape Verde’s defensive line are likely to be tested repeatedly and at pace from the first whistle. Argentina head into this tie with a fully fit and settled squad. Emiliano Martinez is the undisputed first-choice goalkeeper, with the back four expected to feature Nahuel Molina and Nicolas Tagliafico as full-backs alongside Lisandro Martinez and Cristian Romero in central defence. The midfield trio of Alexis Mac Allister, Rodrigo De Paul and Enzo Fernandez has functioned well throughout the group stage, and Scaloni has few, if any, selection headaches at this stage of the tournament.

Wednesday, June 24

The World Cup 2026 knockout stage ruthlessly separates those who have managed a passage through a group from those who can compete at the elite level over 90 minutes. Brazil and France sit at the top of most prediction models, and for good reason. Brazil have rebuilt impressively since their disappointing 2022 quarter-final exit, with a generation of attacking talent led by Vinícius Júnior, Rodrygo, and the teenage prodigy Endrick. France remain a tournament machine under Didier Deschamps’s successor, with Mbappé still in his prime and one of the deepest squads in world football.

Croatia rank just above co-hosts USA and place 15th overall in terms of potential winners with a 1.6% chance. The Opta supercomputer is reasonably positive about the chances of the three co-host nations, suggesting all of them are likely to produce solid – albeit not necessarily spectacular – tournaments. Erling Haaland struck 16 times in just eight games, matching Robert Lewandowski’s 2018 record for the most prolific UEFA World Cup qualification campaign. They have topped their first-round pool in every World Cup since 1982 and have a 60.4% chance of winning Group C. Of course, they were famously crowned world champions in South Africa – but that 2010 success also represents the only time they have reached the semi-finals from their last 14 participations. But Spain’s quality is highlighted by being the only team rated as more likely than not to reach the quarter-finals, which they did 52.1% of the time.

Coming closest to Spain in the pre-tournament predictions are France (13.0%), who have contested the last two finals, long-suffering England (11.2%) and defending champions Argentina (10.4%). Among La Liga players, only Kylian Mbappé (48) had more goal involvements in all competitions this season than the winger’s 41 (24 goals and 17 assists). Teams will battle it out to emerge from 12 different groups and reach a knockout stage that now features a round of 32 – a new addition at international football’s showpiece event. Forty-eight teams will battle it out for glory in North America, but who will win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? We asked the Opta supercomputer for its predictions before the tournament kicks off on 11 June.

The 48-team format’s wider R32 bracket creates more upset opportunities than the 32-team era. Expect a thrilling atmosphere at Estadio Banorte (Azteca) in Mexico City when Mexico and Ecuador square off in the World Cup last 32. As both sides are likely to adopt a cautious approach, our prediction leans toward a 1-1 draw. With the home crowd firmly behind them, El Tri will be eager to extend their perfect run.

Their Euro 2024 triumph came the day after Yamal’s 17th birthday, as he replaced Pelé (1958, 17 years, 249 days) as the youngest player to feature in a World Cup or European Championship final. At Euro 2024, Luis de la Fuente’s Spain produced one of the most eye-catching international tournament successes in recent memory. Cristiano Ronaldo’s Portugal should not be discounted, while the three host nations will be desperate to make their mark. These two met at the same stage of Euro 2024 and Spain won en route to glory. France, with their deeper, lavishly gifted squad, can gain revenge as the fresher of the two over this slog of a tournament. Houston is a long way from Canada, and this is probably where the co-hosts’ run comes to earth, with 2022 semifinalists Morocco going deep once more.

Rui Aguas guided his side to three draws in Group H against Spain, Uruguay and Saudi Arabia, which proved enough to advance, making them one of the surprise packages of the tournament. Their organised defensive shape has been the foundation throughout, keeping clean sheets against Spain and Saudi Arabia and conceding only twice across three games. However, the step up to face Argentina in a knockout tie is of a different magnitude entirely.

Historically, the Netherlands have enjoyed a strong record against African opposition at the World Cup. They are unbeaten in six such matches, scoring at least twice in each of their victories. Tuesday’s tie, however, will be their first knockout match against an African nation. Looking beyond this match, Germany have a 78.6 percent chance of reaching the round of 16 and a 4.4 percent probability of winning the World Cup.

Leagues from World

He was in the squad that swept all before them to win Euro 2024 in such impressive style just two summers ago. That is helpful to coach Luis de la Fuente given there are doubts over the fitness of Barcelona sensation Lamine Yamal for their initial games as he recovers from a hamstring injury. It is Argentina who go into the World Cup as defending champions after Lionel Messi helped to guide La Albiceleste to a famous triumph in Qatar towards the end of 2022.

With nations playing so infrequently, head-to-head results can have a much larger impact than it does for club teams. It can be important to look at historical matchups like England vs Germany for example, and where the results over the years may indicate which team might win the upcoming game. Perhaps none has had more recent success on the international stage as France’s Didier Deschamps. He’s guided Les Bleus to two consecutive finals in FIFA’s quadrennial tournament, winning it all in 2018 and coming up heartbreakingly short four years ago in a penalty-shootout loss to Argentina.

He writes with the perspective of someone who genuinely cares about where the club is heading rather than simply reporting what has already happened. His focus tends to lean toward how the team sets up, where things break down, and what needs to change to get back to where Juventus belongs in the European conversation. Only Italy (1934, 1938) and Brazil (1958, 1962) have ever done it. But Argentina go into 2026 with momentum, a settled spine, and the small matter of Lionel Messi possibly playing one last World Cup at 39. Lautaro Martínez, Julián Álvarez, and Enzo Fernández give them genuine quality even without Messi at his peak. They start as third-favourites and would be considered a major threat in any era.

As Uzbekistan have been struggling defensively at the 2026 World Cup finals, we predict a 1-0 home win. The Leopards, meanwhile, have produced encouraging displays so far, drawing 1-1 with Portugal before suffering a narrow 1… A true David vs Goliath clash awaits as already-eliminated Jordan take on tournament favourites Argentina in their final Group J fixture, with 0-3 our predicted outcome. While Jordan are playing only for pride, Argentina will be looking to maintain their perfect record and head into the knockout stages with maximum confidence. Arrowhead Stadium will host a compelling World Cup last-32 clash between Colombia and Ghana, with both sides arriving after contrasting group-stage performances. Los Cafeteros come into the knockout stage unbeaten in their last group games, beating Uzbekistan and DR Congo while drawing 0-0 with Portugal, a match in which they produced 24 shots on goal.

France cruised through world cup bracket 2026 the group stage with a 100% record, recording comfortable wins over Senegal, Iraq, and Norway. Spain and Austria go head-to-head in the World Cup last 32 with La Roja looking to move one step closer towards their second trophy at the showpiece tournament. As Spain faced no difficulties in the group stages, we predict a routine 2-0 home win. La Roja cruised through the group stage without conceding a single goal, underlining their status as genuine title contenders.

Belgium vs Senegal Picks, Tips, Odds & Best Bets: 2026 World Cup Round of 32

Kickoff back in the UK feels like textbook ingredients for another English tale of World Cup woe. Egypt, Mohamed Salah and all, should have more than enough to do the job here. But time and again, they flatter to deceive on this stage, and the sight of them hanging on against Iran should give Australia plenty of encouragement. A battle of the veterans as Cristiano Ronaldo and Luka Modric, both into their fifth decade, face off for the last time on the big stage. Mexico at the Azteca, backed by a raucous home crowd, has become appointment viewing at this World Cup.